By trade I am a mega-thinker. This is not meant as boasting
or conceit. It is actually a descriptive job title. I get
paid to think, and with rare exception, the things I get
paid to ponder are always big. It's not so much that my
brain is bigger than anyone else's brain. (At least I don't
think it is – I haven't actually taken it out and measured
it.) I just happen to have one of those brains that is very
good at some things – like strategic analysis. This is
different from tactical analysis. I'm pretty good at
tactical analysis – I'm still alive. But I prefer (and
thankfully I am much better at) strategic analysis. The
important thing about strategic analysis isn't that it's
about the "big picture" – because it has both a broad
perspective, as well as extreme attention to detail and an
almost absurd amount of multiplicity. In many ways, modern
strategic analysis is similar to systems engineering in
that it takes a complete approach to problem solving. More
importantly however, strategic analysis includes a
sometimes contradictory political (or at minimum pragmatic)
perspective that is particularly useful in identifying best
"course of action" and "success probability ratios" in
complex multi-level scenarios. This type of analysis is
invaluable for predictive as well as tactical plans,
whether for government or industry. I'm lucky. I get to
work with both entities.
To quote the cult-classic 80's movie Real Genius, "when
you're smart, people need you." Very true.
One of the unique opportunities I have comes from the
nature of how I do my job. As a believer in both the
incredible ingenuity of humans and the cyclical nature of
the universe, I recognize the importance of history in
everything technological. Where something came from will
tell you more about what something is, than mere
examination alone. Numerous times in our history, a random
crossing of paths or a coincidental set of circumstances
led to major leaps and bounds in our technological mastery
of the world. By understanding these past "alignment of the
stars" I can better see when such things are happening
again. This is the most difficult part of what I do. In
many ways, I am asked to predict the future – and with a
rather high degree of success I do. However, there is a
serious caveat to my abilities. Unlike Nostradamus, I don't
use magic. My ability to predict certain scenario outcomes
is based on my ability to absorb, manipulate and recall
massive amounts of information in my head. Although I use
huge computational equipment for my work, the ability to
connect distant dots of information that are relevant to
enormously complex inter-relational concepts occurs in my
head as moments of inspiration. These inspirations allow me
to see trends and momentum that, when combined with
historical perspective, existing conditions and massive
amounts of raw data, lead to a peak of probability
outcomes. It is these peaks that are the future. One of the
most satisfying aspects of my work is when I see things
that I predicted come true.